The U.S. Census Bureau and HUD released their May 2026 new residential sales report on June 24, and the headline number for buyers walking model homes this summer is that builder inventory has climbed to a 10.3-month supply, the deepest backlog the new-home market has carried in years. New-home sales fell 7.3% month over month to a 580,000-unit annual pace, the median sale price slipped to $424,900, and across Bucks County, Montgomery County, and Philadelphia, that translates into more finished spec homes sitting unsold than at any point we have seen in our 30-plus years of inspections.
If you are about to write an offer on one of those homes, the inspection conversation shifts. A brand-new home that has been finished and standing empty for six to twelve months does not develop the same problems as a home with framing crews still on site, and it does not behave like a resale home that has been lived in. It sits in a third category that calls for a different inspection priority list and a sharper read of the builder’s warranty paperwork. Below is what we look for on a long-sitting spec home, why it matters for your offer, and how the warranty math actually works once that home has been on the lot for the better part of a year.
How Did New-Home Inventory Climb to a 10-Month Supply?
The 10.3-month figure is a months-of-supply ratio: at the current pace of new-home sales, it would take a little over ten months to clear today’s standing inventory. By comparison, the new-home market in the spring of 2023 was running closer to seven months of supply, and a balanced market historically sits around six. The May 2026 reading from Census and HUD is the highest reading we have seen in roughly two years, and the trend has been pushing up since the start of the year as buyer traffic softened and builder starts continued to outpace contract signings.
The practical consequence is the inventory that buyers are seeing in builder sales offices. Many of the spec homes on the lot today were started in 2024 or early 2025 with the expectation they would sell during construction, then never found a buyer before the certificate of occupancy was issued. Those homes are now standing finished, fully cleaned, decorated for showings, and burning carrying costs every month they sit. Builders respond with price reductions, design-center credits, rate buydowns, and closing-cost help, and Bucks, Montgomery, and Philadelphia buyers have real negotiation room as a result.
Where the conversation gets thinner is what those incentives do not change. The price tag may move five or ten percent, but the home itself has been sitting through a full year of Pennsylvania weather without anyone running the heat in February, opening windows in May, or noticing the condensate line that started backing up in July. The math is moving in the buyer’s favor on payment, and at the same time, the inspection has more ground to cover than it would on a home that just rolled off the construction schedule. A thorough buyer home inspection is the only way to put those two facts in the same column on your decision sheet.
Why Does a Sitting Home Develop Different Issues?
A home is designed to be used. Heat cycles through the HVAC system every day. Showers and dishwashers keep plumbing traps wet. Cooking and bathing add moisture that balances the dry winter air pulled in by air infiltration. Doors swing on their hinges. Windows open and close. Receptacles get pulled on by lamps and appliances. Refrigerators run continuously. All of those small daily uses are what keeps a building system in working condition, and they are exactly what is missing in a finished home that has been standing empty for months.
The systems that need cycling to stay healthy
Plumbing P-traps rely on a small column of water in the trap arm to block sewer gas. After a few weeks of inactivity, that water evaporates, and sewer gas vents back into the bathroom or laundry room. By the time you walk through, the smell is the first signal that no one has been using the home. The dry trap is easy to fix by pouring a cup of water down each drain, but the question it raises is whether anyone has flushed every line in the home through a full pressure and drain test recently. Builder QC will not have done that on a home that has sat through a winter.
HVAC systems are similar. A central air conditioner that has not run in nine months has refrigerant pooling in the lowest point of the system, evaporator coil surfaces that may have developed biofilm where condensate sat, condensate drain lines that may have clogged with the small biological growth that empty AC pans tend to accumulate, and blower motor bearings that have not been spun up since the certificate of occupancy. None of those are necessarily damaged, but all of them need a controlled commissioning run before a buyer takes possession.
The envelope that aged on schedule anyway
The roof, siding, flashing, caulks, and sealants on a sat home all aged the way they would on any home, but without the help of interior heat in winter or interior cooling in summer to moderate the temperature differential at the building envelope. Ten months of sun, freeze-thaw cycles, and Pennsylvania humidity show up first at penetrations: bathroom exhaust vents on the roof, kickout flashing at roof-to-wall transitions, around-window caulk on south and west elevations, and the joint where the garage door header meets the siding above. We see all of those starting to separate on spec homes that sat through a winter, even when the finish work was done well.
Which Systems Show Wear From Sitting Empty?
When we walk into a spec home that has been standing empty for six to twelve months, we work through a slightly different priority list than we would on either a fresh new build or a typical resale. The framing, electrical rough-in, plumbing rough-in, and HVAC duct runs were covered behind drywall before the home was ever listed, so the depth of inspection that the preconcealment inspection scope we use during construction can provide is no longer available. The visible finish surfaces are the only way in.
HVAC and ventilation
We run both heating and cooling through a full cycle, watch temperature splits across return and supply at multiple registers, document static pressure where access permits, inspect the condensate pan and drain line for any sign of standing water, and listen for blower motor noise during ramp-up. On any home that has been sitting more than a few months, we recommend a separate HVAC commissioning visit by a licensed contractor before move-in, particularly to flush the condensate line, check refrigerant pressures under load, and verify that the unit’s installation date matches what is on the equipment warranty paperwork.
Plumbing and water heater
We run every fixture, including tubs, showers, sinks, and outdoor hose bibs, document supply pressure at the panel, and verify drain function on every line by running enough water to fill the trap. The water heater gets a separate look: the anode rod inside a tank that has sat full of treated municipal water for ten months is in a different chemical state than one in active use, and on heat-pump water heaters that were not run, the heat exchanger may need a service start-up. We also flag any unsealed penetrations through the foundation wall where a plumbing or refrigerant line enters from outside.
Roof, envelope, and grading
We walk the roof when conditions allow, document every penetration and flashing detail, and check kickout flashing at every roof-to-wall transition. On siding, we focus on caulk joints at trim, the bottom edge of fascia where it meets the gutter, and any spot where two siding planes intersect. Grading and drainage get particular attention on a sat home: a full year without active downspout maintenance often means an extension that has worked loose, a splash block that has shifted out of position, or a low spot that developed against the foundation as the lot settled.
Electrical and finishes
Every receptacle gets tested. Every GFCI and AFCI gets tripped and reset. Panel torque is inspected on a panel that has never carried full household load. Interior finishes, particularly drywall joints, ceiling-to-wall transitions, and the tops of door frames, often show small cracks from the seasonal humidity swing the home experienced unconditioned. Doors are checked for binding, windows for seal integrity, and bathroom and kitchen caulks for any early separation that started during the long empty period.
How Does the Builder Warranty Clock Work on a Sat Home?
The warranty math on a spec home that has been sitting is more important than most buyers realize. The first question to put to the builder in writing is when each warranty actually started. Workmanship and materials coverage usually starts at the closing date, but in some builder contracts and in some state interpretations, certain coverages start at the certificate of occupancy, which on a sat home may already be eight to twelve months in the past.
Equipment and appliance warranties tick from manufacture
The appliances, HVAC equipment, and water heater installed in a spec home all have their own manufacturer warranties, and most of them start when the equipment was made or sold, not when you take possession. A refrigerator that was installed nine months ago has nine months less manufacturer warranty than the box-fresh appliance most buyers assume comes with a brand-new home. HVAC equipment is sometimes covered by a longer warranty if the installer registered it within 60 to 90 days of installation, and if the installer never finished that registration because the home never sold, that longer warranty may have already lapsed. Ask for the equipment serial numbers and the registration documentation before closing.
The 11-month inspection becomes more critical
If the workmanship warranty did start at certificate of occupancy, the 11-month inspection that most buyers schedule before the one-year window closes may need to happen within weeks of closing, or in some cases, may have already passed. The single most important paperwork question on a sat spec home is what the builder will agree to in writing about when warranty coverage starts and how long you have to flag items. When that conversation does not go cleanly and the builder will not extend the workmanship period to your actual move-in, an expert-witness inspection report often becomes the document that resolves the dispute later.
How Does Spec Inventory Look in Bucks and Montgomery Counties?
Our regional spec home inventory mirrors the national pattern. Several new construction communities in northern Bucks County and across central Montgomery County have finished inventory on the lot dating back to homes that completed in late summer 2025. The local weather pattern over the past twelve months, a wet fall, a cold January with a meaningful freeze-thaw cycle, an unusually humid spring, is exactly the kind of weather that exposes the differences between a home that was lived in and a home that was not. Philadelphia townhome and condo new-construction projects with finished but unsold units are running into similar issues, particularly around the rooftop drainage and HVAC condensate routing common to those building types.
For buyers shopping these communities, the smartest move is to ask the sales office two specific questions: when did the home receive its certificate of occupancy, and how long has it been standing finished as inventory? Those two dates set the inspection priorities, the warranty math, and the negotiation conversation. For background on how we approach a fresh new build versus a long-sitting unit, the broader new construction inspection guide on this site is a useful comparison.
Frequently Asked Questions
How can I tell how long a spec home has been sitting before I make an offer?
Ask the builder’s sales office for two dates in writing: the certificate of occupancy date and the date the home was added to the sales office’s standing inventory list. You can also check the county recorder of deeds for the date the property was transferred to the builder’s holding entity, and the local township for the date the final use-and-occupancy permit was issued. If the sales office hesitates to share any of those dates, that itself is information worth carrying into the inspection.
Does a builder reduce the price more on a spec home that has sat longer?
Usually yes, particularly at the end of a builder’s fiscal quarter or before the end of the calendar year, when carrying costs are most visible on the financial reporting. The exact discount varies by community and by builder, but a home that has carried inventory for six to twelve months has more negotiation room than one that just hit the listing. Ask the inspector to flag inspection items that affect the negotiation in a separate section of the report so your agent can use them at the closing table.
When did the builder warranty actually start on this home?
That depends on the builder’s contract language and on the warranty type. Workmanship warranties most often start at closing for the original buyer. Structural warranties, which are usually backed by a third-party administrator, may start at the certificate of occupancy. Equipment and appliance warranties almost always start at manufacture or installation. Ask for each warranty’s start date in writing as part of the contract negotiation.
Should I schedule an HVAC commissioning check separately?
Yes, on a home that has been sitting for more than a few months. Our inspection runs both heating and cooling through full cycles and documents what we see, but a licensed HVAC contractor performing a commissioning visit can verify refrigerant pressures under load, flush the condensate line, and start the registration process for any extended manufacturer warranty. Treat the commissioning visit as a separate line item on your closing diligence schedule.
Do I still need a pre-drywall inspection if the home is already finished?
No, because the framing, electrical rough-in, plumbing rough-in, and HVAC ductwork have all been covered behind drywall and finishes. What you can still do is request the original township rough inspection records and any third-party engineering documentation the builder retained, and have your inspector review them before the walkthrough. If the builder cannot produce that documentation, factor it into your decision.
What is the most expensive defect that shows up only after a home has sat empty?
In our experience, drainage and grading defects are the most expensive items that develop or worsen during the sat period. A downspout extension that worked loose, a low spot that developed against the foundation, or a sump-pump discharge that froze shut over winter can lead to basement water intrusion within the first year of ownership and can run into several thousand dollars to remediate. Roof flashing and kickout-flashing failures at roof-to-wall transitions are the close second.
How Do You Book an Inspection on a Sitting Spec Home?
If you are under contract or about to be on a spec home in Bucks County, Montgomery County, or Philadelphia that has been on the lot for more than a few months, our team can walk it with the long-sitting inspection priority list above and give you a photo-rich report you can hand to the builder before closing. Call (215) 947-1000 or schedule a Bucks or Montgomery County inspection through our online form, and let the sales office know an independent inspection is part of your offer before you sign.